KTFA:

Samson:  Observers: Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi is the most fortunate to take over the next government

11th October, 2021

Although the High Elections Commission did not announce the preliminary results, observers believe that Al-Kazemi remains one of the most likely consensual candidates, to form the next government.

Observers say that if the Al-Kazemi government had the opportunity, meaning if the challenges and the internal political forces were less severe and reckless, we would have witnessed great achievements that were achieved during his reign, noting that Al-Kazemi succeeded in postponing the internal conflict and not resolving it, that is, the conflict between the state and non-state forces.  LINK

Rdagullana:  Hello, just wondering if anyone has a calculation as to the earliest a new Prime Minister could be voted in by the new Parliament?

TSM:  there was a good article out yesterday that laid out the process.... I will try

10 days for the courts to certify the election results

then President has 15 days to task the oldest member of parliament to hold a session (to name the largest group) I think largest group has 30 days to form a gov't.... if not successful, wash, rinse and repeat

all in all.... IT would be a miracle if they actually got anything done sooner than this.... that puts things pretty close to year end...in spite of what is said...IMO

DCDriver:  Maybe the CBI changes the rate before a Gov is seated so no one can use it as a political soapbox IMO

**************

Samson:  Legally and constitutionally, it is the Sadrist bloc that will be tasked with forming the government

12th October, 2021

A legal expert, Tariq Harb, confirmed, on Tuesday, that the Sadrist bloc is the most numerous bloc that will be tasked with forming the government in accordance with Article 45 of the Parliament's Elections Law and Article 76 of the Constitution.

Harb said in an interview with "Mawazine News" that "the President of the Republic, who will be elected from Parliament, is obliged to assign the Sadrist bloc alone to the other blocs to nominate the person charged with forming the government, because the electoral results showed the superiority of this bloc over the other blocs and as long as the interpretation of the Federal Supreme Court has been done." Its seizure and identification in Article (45) of the New Parliament Elections Law No. 9 of 2020, which prevented the transition between members and blocs, that transition that caused a previous disturbance in determining the most numerous bloc, as preventing the movement of a member or members from an entire bloc means that the parliamentary blocs are prepared It is fixed and does not change as stated in the final results, and it cannot be increased by the transition that was prohibited by the aforementioned article, and since the Sadrist bloc has the highest number of winners, therefore, it guaranteed the assignment of the President of the Republic to it.

He added, "The transition is different from the coalition, as the first is counted as a member of the bloc to which it is transferred, and the coalition does not add anything to the number of blocs because the coalition remains on the same number of members for the blocs without change, as the bloc remains on its numbers without an increase, so Article 45 of the law The elections prevented the transition and opened the coalition, which does not exceed the number in the bloc, but remains outside the bloc’s number and achieves the benefit of the bloc when voting on the government formation.

What happened in the 2010 elections when Al-Maliki got 89 votes and Allawi got 91 votes, but the transition was open, so a number of members moved Parliament for Maliki made the number of his bloc more than 100 votes, which is more than the number of Allawi's votes, which resulted in his assignment to form a government.

He pointed out, "With this, preventing the transition means closing the door to increasing the members of any bloc than what was stated in the electoral results, and this does not violate the decision of the Supreme Court, which determined the most numerous bloc in the results or in Parliament after the transition, and the second case the law prevented it and kept the first case only."  LINK

**************

Samson:  Will oil prices rise to the level of $100 a barrel?

12th October, 2021

Oil prices fell today for the first time in 4 days in what analysts described as a respite after weeks of gains, fueled by a rebound in global demand that is contributing to energy shortages in major economies.

Brent crude fell six cents to $83.59 a barrel by 04:40 GMT, after touching a three-week high on Monday. While US crude fell 13 cents to $ 80.39 a barrel, after it also rose by 1.5 percent in the previous session, when it reached its highest level in nearly seven years.

"There is still a lot of momentum behind higher oil prices and the fundamentals are still very favorable.

Would it be a surprise to see oil back in the hundreds digits later this year? Probably not," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. Energy prices have risen to record levels in the past few weeks, driven by energy shortages in Asia, Europe and the United States. The rise in natural gas prices is also encouraging electricity producers to switch to oil.   LINK

Samson:  Iraq's holdings of US bonds decreased to $19 billion

12th October, 2021

The US Treasury announced, on Tuesday, that Iraq's holdings of US bonds decreased to 19 billion dollars during the month of July.

A table issued by the Treasury, which was reviewed by Mawazine News, indicated that "Iraq's possession of US Treasury bonds for the month of July decreased by 10.1% to reach $19.047 billion, after it was $21.187 billion in the month of June." The table indicated that "these bonds are still higher than the month of December of the year 2020, by 11%, when Iraq's possession of bonds amounted to 17.1 billion dollars."

According to the US Treasury, "Iraqi bonds include long-term guarantees of $8.843 billion and short-term guarantees of $10.204 billion." And she pointed out that "the most countries in possession of US bonds are Japan, at 1.310 trillion dollars, followed by China, at 1.068 trillion dollars, then Britain, at 539 billion dollars."

In the Arab world, Saudi Arabia is at the forefront of the most possessing countries, with a value of 128.1 billion dollars, followed by the UAE with 58 billion dollars, Kuwait third with 46 billion dollars, then Iraq with 19.047 billion dollars, and Qatar fifth with 6.6 billion dollars.   LINK

************

Samson:  The collapse of Afghanistan's economy and the disappearance of liquidity

12th October, 2021

Barely a few weeks after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, the liquidity crisis paralyzed the country's already ailing economy

A lack of funds, a tightening of borders, and growing international isolation have deprived many Afghan employees of their wages and salaries, forcing local businesses to close and banks to limit cash withdrawals. The crisis also threatens to isolate Afghanistan from the outside world, as wireless operators face huge challenges in making their payments to suppliers. More seriously, the food shortage is exacerbating in light of the high prices of the main commodities, which indicates a wider economic and humanitarian crisis

Over the twenty years of the US occupation, the Afghan economy was mainly dependent on international aid and US dollars in circulation, along with the local "Afghani" currency, as dollars are usually used to pay for imported goods and services, and also to make large payments, such as buying a home Or pay a private school premium. According to the estimates of the board member of the Central Bank of Afghanistan, Shah Mehrabi, who is currently in the United States; About a third of deposits in the banking system, and half of all loans, are in US currency. He said, "Dollarization is still prevalent in Afghanistan, and our economy depends on it

The problem is that the United States and other countries have not yet recognized the Taliban as the legitimate authority in Afghanistan, due to their concerns about the movement's involvement in terrorism and human rights abuses. The country's new rulers were denied access to $9 billion in central bank reserves, after the administration of President Joe Biden froze Afghan assets deposited in American banks in mid-August, followed by a number of other countries. As well; Funding from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund has been suspended

Capital Control

In order to maintain the few remaining precautions; The Taliban have resorted to imposing capital controls, including preventing Afghans from taking dollars out of the country, and capping cash withdrawals from banks at $200 per week

In Kabul, some residents have resorted to selling their furniture and household items at the flea market in order to get cash. "The liquidity crisis is worsening, and many banks are now unable to pay depositors," said Ahmad Khosrow Zia, the former CEO of the Islamic Bank Melli Afghanistan, the country's oldest bank, and who is currently a professor of economics at a private university in Kabul

Meanwhile, the US is unlikely to release central bank reserves, or allow IMF support. Senator Pat Toomey, the top Republican member of the Banking Committee, argued that doing so "would be a huge mistake." He described the Taliban as a "savage, murderous, and terrorist group linked to Al-Qaeda

The years since the fall of the Taliban in 2001 have seen a flourishing of small and medium enterprises whose role in the Afghan economy is estimated at $20 billion, according to figures from the World Bank and the local Chamber of Commerce. However, these institutions are now on the verge of extinction. "If these institutions collapse, the entire economy of the country will collapse," warned Khanjan Okozai, a high-ranking member of the Chamber of Commerce, noting that several companies had already ceased operations due to lack of liquidity

Halim Gul, a car mechanic in Kabul, says that almost all of his customers now have no money to pay for their cars to be repaired. “The money has completely disappeared," he says. Jawed Mehri, who runs a carpet factory in the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif, has been forced to stop working temporarily, as he no longer has the money to pay his employees. In his opinion; Restrictions on withdrawals "could help the banks go some time, but it would kill our business, and probably everyone's business

Poverty threatens everyone

A report by the United Nations Development Program last month said that in a worst-case scenario, Afghanistan's gross domestic product could decline by 13.2% in the fiscal year ending in June 2022. That means all of the country's 38 million people, They will slip into poverty, down from 72% in 2020

"The situation is very difficult," said Abdullah Al-Dardari, the resident representative of the United Nations Development Program in Afghanistan, adding that the collapse of the national economy "is not the way things are heading, but rather what is happening

The UN report also warned that food security is "increasingly deteriorating", in light of declining production, high prices and import restrictions. The prices of some basic foodstuffs, such as rice, cooking oil and flour, have risen by as much as 30% since the Taliban seized power, according to data from the Kabul Retailers Association. and so on; The World Health Organization recently warned of the deterioration of the health sector as a result of declining donor funding

For its part, the Taliban did not underestimate the reality of the crisis, as the movement’s spokesman, Bilal Karimi, admitted in an interview with “Bloomberg News” on September 29, that “if public funds and aid continue to be frozen, the country could face an economic crisis of the kind.” worse, leading to the collapse of local businesses that provide jobs.” Karimi admitted that the Taliban had not been able to pay the salaries of government employees since they seized power. “Our finance team at the Ministry of Finance is working day and night,” he said, noting that low-paid employees may get their salaries “soon,” while higher-ranking employees, who are paid in dollars, may be subject to “deductions.” big

After calling him again on Monday, Karimi expected the liquidity crisis to be resolved soon, but he added that "there are still some technical issues outstanding," without providing further details

Finding sources of income

The Taliban had previously declared that the revenue from customs duties was sufficient to cover public sector salaries. But it is not yet clear to what extent the movement can provide income from other sources, such as the exploitation of mineral wealth and tax collection, without having to return to the practice of extortion and kidnappings for ransom, as well as the production and trade of drugs, which were previously practiced in order to be able to Continuing during the American occupation period

A report issued by the United Nations last June, indicated that drugs made from poppy and methamphetamine, "constituted the largest source of income for the Taliban." However, after the movement's seizure of power in August, its spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, vowed that the new ruling regime would not turn Afghanistan into a drug-sponsored state. In an interview with reporters, he said, "We assure the citizens and the international community that we will not produce any drugs

In the meantime; Some international organizations and governments have begun to provide aid, in part as they are trying to respond to a massive refugee wave from Afghanistan. Last September, the United Nations announced that a number of countries had pledged $1.2 billion in emergency aid, while the United States granted humanitarian organizations an exemption from sanctions. As for China, which criticized the United States' freezing of Afghan assets, it announced $31 million in emergency aid. however; The impact of such sums will remain limited in a country where foreign aid has accounted for about 75% of public spending over the past years

Bismillah Zukiri, who left his administrative job at the Ministry of Education before the fall of Kabul; He sold his family's property on the street in order to raise money for food, and to finance his trip to neighboring Pakistan. He asked, "What else can we do?" Then he said, "If we don't die of hunger, we will die of fear, anxiety, and frustration with the Taliban regime     LINK