KTFA Members "Iraq News" Sunday 1-12-2020
KTFA:
Don961: a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate
01/09/2020
The Iraqi economy in general will face more pressure in the year 2020, due to the political tensions witnessed by the country and represented by the popular protests in late 2019, which culminated in the killing of (Soleimani and the engineer) by the Baghdad airport operation at the hands of the American forces early this year 2020, which portends a lot of pressure on the economy Iraqi, mainly burdened by problems of mismanagement, corruption and over-dependence on one resource.
It is expected that the Central Bank of Iraq will face significant daily operational pressures in its management of the currency auction in order to continue to maintain the stability of the exchange rate as much as possible and prevent significant fluctuations in it that could lead to instability of the economy and affect the purchasing power of individuals.
To continue reading please download the pdf file. Click on the following link
Don961: Researcher reveals the value of external and internal debt to Iraq
2020-01-11
Yassin Iraq: Baghdad
, the president of the independent research group, Munqeth Dagher, revealed today, Saturday, the value of external and internal debts on the liability of Iraq, indicating that the total Iraqi debt amounts to 63 billion dollars.
Dagher said in a post seen by "Yassin Iraq", that "various numbers are circulated in the media and among specialists about the actual debts of Iraq, and to find out the truth, the independent group used Iraqi official sources to identify these debts."
And that "the total Iraqi debt is around 63 billion dollars, (about 28% of the gross domestic product) distributed as follows:
- 38 billion dollars of internal debt.
- 25 billion dollars in external debt, including:
- 10 billion for Paris Club creditors.
- 6.4 billion are divided between the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
- 3.1 billion Kuwait compensation.
2.7 billion for America.
- Others.
He added, "There are $ 41 billion from the days of the previous regime, which are (political) loans granted to the previous regime (from various countries, the most important of which is the Gulf).
Iraq has stopped paying it because it was granted outside Security Council resolutions, and whoever wants from creditors to claim it must go to the Paris Club." Most of these can be extinguished politically. ” LINK
****************
DCdriver: Just a question on the 35 billion that Trump says we have of dinar: I assume that it is 35 billion “Dollars” worth. If it were 35 billion dinar it would have only cost our government 35 million dollars. Can someone shed some light on this? Thank you
Iggy: imo these are 2 separate accts...you will never know the amount the US treasury holds...the one Trump speaks of is a acct that holds 35 billion dollars of iraq's from oil revenues imo...
OLLar: Just clarify, He said we have 35 billion dollars that belong to Iraq in an account ,this was set up at the time of the Paris Club agreement for the reconstruction of Iraq. They have been contributing to it for almost 2 decades, they will receive it when their reforms are complete, if they fail to abide by the agreement, it goes to the debt they are being forgiven for according to the Paris Club agreement. I do believe we have between 5 and 10 Trillion dinar, but people need to listen to his exact words. These are exciting times and it's easy to overstate the reality of things. IMO of coarse.
****************
Samson: An economist warns of the dangers of lifting protection from Iraqi money abroad
09:15 - 12/01/2020
Economic expert Qusay Safwan warned, on Sunday, of the dangers of lifting protection for Iraqi funds abroad, pointing out that Iraq should diversify into foreign currencies and keep its money and bonds away from the risks of economic war.
Safwan said in a statement to the "information", that "facing the American treasury and its penalties in the event of lifting the protection system on Iraqi funds will expose the country to the threats of creditors, especially that Iraq has 32 billion dollars in treasury shares in America, and once the protection is lifted it will be threatened."
He added that "Iraqi funds outside of America can be frozen and creditors demand their dues, and therefore the Finance Ministry is supposed to try to reduce the risks of imposing these sanctions by converting them into assets and bringing them into the local environment in order to avoid the risks of the American embargo."
He pointed out that "Iraq is supposed to avoid sanctions by diversifying foreign currencies and not neglecting the financial protection system in Washington," pointing out that "Iraqi monetary fiscal policy is free in the process of withdrawing funds in Washington, but in practice, Iraq is betting on the strength of the dollar and the stability of American bond prices and the process Transferring the cash reserve to another environment may indicate that the monetary fiscal policy has begun to withdraw from the dollar economic environment and this will expose Iraq to economic risks.
He stressed that "the Iraqi economy is dollar, and therefore it is assumed that there will be a reduction in the severity of tensions, as it is possible to take advantage of the gold reserves to reduce the risks of threatening the Iraqi economy, through trading in this mineral." LINK
** **********
Samson: A businessman reveals the Central Bank of Iraq assets and gold reserves and foreign exchange
12/12/20 10:51 AM
Businessman Manar Al-Ubaidi revealed, on Sunday, the assets of the Central Bank of Iraq and the reserves of gold and foreign exchange.
Al-Ubaidi said that "the total assets of the Central Bank of Iraq as of November 30 of the previous year amounted to more than 103 trillion dinars, an increase of 0.5% compared to the same period of 2017." He added that "the value of gold reserves amounted to 5.3 trillion Iraqi dinars, a decline of 3% compared with the same period. As for the value of foreign exchange in the bank's treasures, it amounted to 1.99 trillion, a decline of 29% from the same period."
He pointed out that "the value of the issued currency amounted to 51 trillion dinars, an increase of 2% compared to the same period in the previous year. As for bank deposits, they increased by 5% to reach 25.8 trillion dinars."
Al-Obaidi added, "The percentage of the currency issued is one of the major challenges, as the source cash represents 50% of the total assets of the central bank, which greatly weakens the banking system in Iraq." And he stated that "despite the increase in the value of deposits in Iraqi banks by 5%, which indicates a slight improvement in the banking system as a result of adopting the Emiratization policy that allowed the opportunity to maintain salary deposits in banks, however the high cash rate and large cash liquidity pressures significantly on the banking sector".
He explained that "the most important factors that lead to an increase in the ratio of the cash currency compared to deposits is the weakening of the citizen's confidence in the banking sector as a result of many factors, the most important of which are the volatile political situations and the weak marketing operations of banking and banking services. Cash to the banking sector." LINK
Samson: Iraq delivers the first batch of oil to China in accordance with the strategic agreement
12:40 - 12/01/2020
The deputy for the rule of law, Nassif, on Sunday, revealed that Iraq delivered 100 thousand barrels to the Chinese side as the first payment within the economic agreement between the two parties, calling on Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to attend and provide a comprehensive clarification to the House of Representatives on the agreement for Support her.
Nassif said in a statement to the "information" that "Iraq delivered the first batch of its oil yesterday to the Chinese side within the economic strategic agreement between the two countries that entered into force." She added that "all the provinces have begun to hand over hundreds of strategic projects to the government that will be discussed and handed over to Chinese companies to implement them urgently within the agreement." She indicated that "the economic agreement is very important and Iraq needs it, especially with the file of removing American forces from Iraq and the conflict in the region.”
She called on the prime minister’s bleeding to “attend the parliament and discuss the agreement and clarify its importance and purpose, as well as vote on it if it is a strategic agreement from Parliament and clarify the mechanisms for implementing the Grand Faw port project, which is the most prominent point within the agreement.” LINK
************
Samson: Parliamentary Finance: The 2020 budget includes the payment of the last payment of Kuwait's debts
12th January, 2020
Revealed a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee Hanin Qaddu, today, Sunday, that this year's budget will include the payment of the last payment of debts owed by the Iraqi government to Kuwait, amounting to $ 2 billion.
Qaddo said in a radio statement that was followed by / Mawazine News, that "the total amounts of the Iraqi budget for the year 2020 amount to fifty trillion Iraqi dinars, which are distributed between the salaries of the ruling expenditures such as the ration card and the wages of other cases."
He explained, "The total debt owed by Iraq amounts to $ 28 billion, indicating that Iraq seeks to delay the payment of its debts to the Gulf countries or go to the Paris Club to reduce them to 40%." LINK
****************
Don961: An economist answers .. What is the money of Iraq to the US Federal Reserve and can Trump take it?
Politics 01/20 2020 14:00 946 Editor: gf Baghdad today - Baghdad
The economic expert, Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani, revealed on Sunday (12 January 2020) what he described as a "fatal strategic mistake", committed by the Iraqi Central Bank, which will lead to the seizure of half of the bank's reserves if the United States of America decides to impose sanctions on the country.
Al-Mashhadani said in an interview with (Baghdad today), that "the United States, if it blocks the access of Iraq to the money of the central bank, which is kept in the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, it is an illegal decision, because the central banks are supposed to be their money protected according to treaties and agreements International, and the Federal Reserve had already made compliance with the treaties granted to independent banks. "
He explained, "There are two types of banks' associations, banks that follow governments and work with the government plan, and this was what the central bank adopted before 2003 as the central bank was affiliated to the Office of the Presidency of the Republic or the Ministry of Finance, and after 2003 a decision was issued in Decree 56 of 2004 granting full independence to the bank Central, "indicating:" It is assumed that the funds of the Central Bank are treated separately from the government. "
Concerning US President Donald Trump, about his ability to withhold and seize the funds of the Federal Reserve Bank, he saw that "the United States of America does not abide by the laws, and occupied Iraq without an international mandate and an individual decision, and hit more than one site with an individual decision, and it can also take this decision."
He pointed out the ease of possibility "to challenge the United States with the independence of the central bank, especially since the bank lent to the government in 2015, 21 trillion dinars, and is still asking the government about 17 trillion dollars."
He explained, "The big mistake is not from the Americans, but we put our money in the Federal Reserve when our relationship was good with America, and it was supposed to be distributed to more than one party and more than one bank in Britain, France, and China," stressing that "the strategic error that occurred With the central bank is investing half of its reserves in US treasury bonds at a simple interest rate, which is half of 1%, and we are talking about 37 billion dollars, half of the reserve. "
He continued, "The sanctions are supposed to be gradual, as they were imposed on Iran," noting that "the mere announcement of the imposition of sanctions will lead to a state of panic among investors and capital, and this is what happened in the first days when the exchange rate rose to 125 thousand to 100 dollars."
He explained, "This panic caused the central bank to increase its sales from the dollar from 275 to 365, and now the central bank sells almost 300 million, which means the bank's sales are more than revenues."
He continued: "If the central bank's sales remain like this, we will sell six and a half billion, while our oil revenues are seven billion, and the central bank will then be forced to use its reserves to maintain the exchange rate."
Al-Mashhadani added, “In the event that sanctions are imposed on oil, we will only have the ability to withstand 6 months, because our economy does not allow that.”
And he added, "Iraq differs from Iran, which has adapted to the sanctions since 1997 and relied on itself in the industrial and agricultural sector, while Iraq relies on import. If we cut oil exports, we do not have money. We import the needs of the local market and this matter is more severe than the siege of the 1990s because the previous blockade It had government support and an industrial sector, and that does not exist now. "
US President Donald Trump commented, on Friday, January 10, 2020, on the request of the Iraqi parliament to withdraw his country's forces, saying: "We created in Iraq one of the most expensive airport installations in the world. If we leave, they (the Iraqis) must pay money for that." Countries like Saudi Arabia and South Korea pay millions of dollars for the deployment of American soldiers there. "
And on the way in which the money can be raised from the Iraqis, Trump said in an interview with the American "Fox News" station: "We have a lot of their money. There is 35 billion dollars in an account with the United States."
On Sunday (January 05, 2020), the Iraqi Council of Representatives voted on the exit of all foreign and American forces from Iraq, the cancellation of the role of the international coalition, in addition to canceling the security agreement with America by the Iraqi government. LINK
Don961: A "bleak picture" of the Iraqi economy in light of any US sanctions
- Two Hours Ago
Senior officials in the Iraqi financial sector presented a bleak picture of the future of the country's economy, if US President Donald Trump implemented his threat to impose sanctions on Iraq, during a high-level meeting attended by deputies in parliament.
According to informed sources, all the possibilities that have been raised are based on the assumption that the Iraqi government will continue to be subject to the Iranian point of view, in light of the burning conflict between Tehran and Washington in the region, and Iraq in particular.
Stop supplying Iraq with the dollar
The Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, the head of the Financial Supervision Bureau and the undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance, acknowledged during the meeting the possibility of stopping the supply of Iraq with the dollar in the framework of the expected US sanctions, given the full sovereignty of countries over their currency, a development that would lead to a decline in the value of Iraqi dinar in front of foreign currencies.
Member of the Finance Committee in the Iraqi Parliament, Majida Al-Tamimi, said that “the country will face great risks if the United States stops its support in the dollar currency, as it must search for an alternative currency,” noting that “most international banks have difficult conditions and restrictions to deal with Iraq as a country It is unstable and has many problems, and it will be dealt with very cautiously, in addition to converting to other currencies requires changing the commercial behavior of the country. ”
Debt file
Since the overthrow of the regime of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 2003, imports of Iraqi oil sales are subject to protection that the American President personally supervises and is considered annually.
This presidential protection prevents Iraqi creditors from accessing oil money, a measure that has guaranteed the flow of money into Baghdad over the past years.
According to Al-Tamimi, Iraq owes $ 28 billion to foreign countries and companies, in addition to $ 41 billion in debt to the Gulf states dating back to Saddam Hussein's era.
In the event that the American protection is lifted from the Iraqi account in the United States that receives oil revenues, creditors will be able to access the funds deposited in it, which implicates Baghdad in complicated problems.
Ban on dealing with "Sumo"
Among the possibilities discussed by financial sector officials in Iraq is the United States going towards depriving certain Iraqi parties of carrying out their activities or prohibiting dealing with them by most international companies, especially companies specialized in marketing Iraqi oil.
Baghdad fears that the United States will prevent some international companies from dealing with the National Oil Marketing Company, which is known by the acronym "Sumo", a measure that was previously tested in the Iranian case, and its effect was fatal in relation to the unilateral economy, which is based on oil only, such as the state of the economy Iraqi.
Treasury penalties
The fourth possibility, which was present at the table of officials of the financial sector in Iraq, relates to the possibility of the United States listing Iraqi entities or personalities on the ban list administered by the US Treasury, which exposes their financial assets to the risk of freezing and deprives them of dealing internationally in dollars.
The expected ban could include the central bank itself, which is the main money repository in Iraq, and it could also include officials in the executive authority, according to observers, a measure that severely limits financial transactions, given that most international banks fear that the United States will be angry if it exceeds the embargo decisions. .
Al-Tamimi says, “The economic blockade that was imposed on Iraq in the nineties and how it is managed and the funds needed to pay the obligations cannot be compared with the current situation in Iraq, which cannot withstand such shocks,” noting that there is a “big difference in the numbers of employees and then salaries.” (Between the situation in the nineties and the current situation), in addition to the existence of profitable industrial companies at the time that used their profits to cover salaries.
Al-Tamimi called for "studying the situation and the potential dangers to Iraq in an extensive manner, in preparation for making sound decisions and setting alternatives based on achieving the interests of Iraq first and foremost."
Mohammed Naji
The Arab Independent link