Iraq Economic News and Points to Ponder Thursday Afternoon 11-2-23

Tlm724 Administrator Bondlady’s Corner

The American Ambassador: We Are In Iraq To Ensure Its Stability

Political | 06:40 - 02/11/2023  Mawazine News – Baghdad  US Ambassador Alina Romanski confirmed that the presence of the United States in Iraq will help it defeat terrorism and ensure its stability.

The media office of the head of the Victory Coalition, Haider Al-Abadi, said in a statement received by Mawazine News, “Today, Thursday, Al-Abadi received the Ambassador of the United States of America to Iraq, Alina Romanski, to discuss the overall situation in Iraq and the region, and the recent attacks of the Zionist aggression against the Palestinian people.”

The statement added, "Al-Abadi condemned the clear bias in favor of the Israeli entity and condoning the crimes taking place against civilians in Gaza, calling on the international community to play its supposed humanitarian role and help the people."

For her part, Ambassador Romanski stressed that "the presence of the United States is focused on helping Iraq against terrorism and ensuring its stability."

https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=237200

The Foreign Exchange Shock...Signals For Correcting The Macroeconomic Policy Perspective

Dr. Haitham Hamid Mutlak Al-Mansour   In light of the new shock of the rise in the dollar exchange rate from its target level beyond the threshold of 1,600 dinars per dollar in the parallel market at the beginning of the last quarter, and the resulting rise in the general level of prices, the Iraqi dinar began to suffer a significant decline in its real value, causing a decline in income levels.

The real value of individuals and economic units , and with increasing expectations that the gap between the actual and target prices will continue to widen, the foreign exchange movement and the repeated shocks it is exposed to are an important input into analyzing the reality of the monetary economy and macroeconomic policy, through the following axes:

The duality of the price system and the restriction of public spending in the absence of traditional economic balance, as economic activity suffers from real problems in its internal structure that are reflected in the method of managing the exchange rate and choosing the appropriate system to manage it, and the accompanying outcomes of this duality of economic restrictions that work to unsustain the stability of the exchange rate within the target.

This includes the decline in the effectiveness of macro policy in achieving its goals of stabilizing the general level of prices and economic growth.

The increased flexibility of financial transfer channels used in foreign trade in light of the obsolescence of financial transfer channels, which creates difficulty in managing the supply of the dollar, reducing demand for it and lowering the actual exchange rate. Therefore, the technical limitation of the tools of state authority over dollar flows is one of the real challenges to the financial situation in Iraq.

The policies of the US Federal Bank, and the package of financial, monetary and commercial conditions that the government and the central bank are required to implement in order to reduce the severity of the smuggling or exit of the dollar to countries besieged by economic sanctions.

The decline in the efficiency of fiscal and tax policy tools on foreign trade outlets, which allows two negative movements to occur against the rhythm of adjusting the dollar currency and the exchange rate:

Dumping policies followed by the blockading countries increase the demand for the dollar.

The exit of a large proportion of the monetary dollar mass of the aforementioned countries.

Decreased compliance of some banks with financial and monetary control tools in a way that reduces the ability of monetary policy to control the pace of financial transfer and the sale of the dollar.

Weak outcomes of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies: The failure to implement laws supporting the trade protection policy, including the customs tariff law, the local product protection law, the competition and antitrust law, and the consumer protection law, which are considered among the most important steps for the effectiveness of monetary policy and enabling it to perform its functions towards the goal of stability at the general level. For prices.

The fluctuation of the flow of dollar revenue receivables for oil exports from Iraq's credit account and the occurrence of some bottlenecks that negatively affect the supply of the dollar.

Therefore, the continued exposure of the market to the fluctuations of foreign exchange shocks shows a decline in the degree of responsiveness of the exchange system to monetary policy tools. If the exchange rate continues to move beyond the 1600 threshold, inflation is expected to have a greater impact on the income cycle, the behaviors of economic units, and the movement of consumption, investment, and saving than it does .

This leads to a re-evaluation of their balance sheets according to changes in inflation. This will reflect on all aspects of economic life, as the continued rise in inflation means the dominance of inflationary expectations that fuel other rises, which deepens the problem.

Despite the multiple and continuous measures taken by the Central Bank to restrict the movement of the dollar around the target and raise the exchange system’s response to its monetary tools, the inflation index is still high, which means that the response is still low, due to the fact that the economy needs a combination of several policies in order to calm and stabilize inflation at the target.

Therefore, the monetary authority alone cannot be able to contain the scope of the problem, but rather requires coordination with other relevant policies, to correct the degree in the perspective of macroeconomic policies and adopt a government plan with a short-term path and the other with a medium-term path that limits recurring shocks and achieves the goal of reducing the exchange gap between the actual and target rates. According to the following indications:

Reducing the demand gap for the dollar, by creating effective alternatives to achieve a balance between the supply of the dollar and the demand for it, in light of auditing and examining the movement of transfers via documentary credits according to the electronic platform and auditing the movement of the cash dollar.

Developing the performance of the financial policy arms through tightening the ports of foreign trade movement and examining and organizing import operations with customs controls and regulations that would limit the phenomenon of commodity dumping, including increasing import flexibility towards the goods of the besieged countries, to support the local product, or to divert part of the trade away from those countries.

Then, work to reduce the impact of the external variable by increasing response to the Federal Reserve’s policies and the package of financial conditions proposed to the government to restrict dollar smuggling activities and enhance the transparency of international transfer activities.

Maintaining the flow rate of oil revenue receivables within its normal rate from Iraq’s credit account to avoid recurring bottlenecks, by reorganizing the practical perspective of macroeconomic policy and the Federal Reserve’s policy.   11/02/2023 - https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=37222

Increased Revenues From Iraqi Oil Exports To Europe

Energy   Economy News _ Baghdad   Iraqi oil export revenues to Europe witnessed an increase in October (2023), by about $505 million, compared to revenues recorded in September of $1.54 billion.

The revenues generated from the sale of Iraqi oil to Europe during the month of September fell by about 570 million dollars, compared to the revenues recorded in the previous August, which amounted to about 2.11 billion dollars, according to monthly statistics published by the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company "SOMO." .

Statistics revealed that the total revenues of Iraqi oil exports during last October recorded $9.669 billion, compared to $9.494 billion recorded in September.

Revenues From Iraqi Oil Exports To Europe In October

During the month of October 2023, revenues from Iraqi oil exports to Europe amounted to about $2.045 billion, higher than the revenues of the previous September, which amounted to $1.54 billion, by more than half a billion dollars.

It is noteworthy that revenues for the month of August 2023 achieved about $2.11 billion, while revenues in July recorded about $1.6 billion, according to the specialized energy platform.

The quantities of Iraqi oil exported to European markets in October 2023 amounted to about 23.8 million barrels, an increase of 7.2 million barrels over the quantities exported during the month of September, which amounted to about 16.6 million barrels.

It is noteworthy that the total revenues from Iraqi oil exports to Europe recorded, during the first nine months of this year, about 12.46 billion dollars, in the period between January (2023) and September, and by adding the revenues of October, the total Revenue towards. $14.5 billion.

The Volume Of Iraqi Exports To Europe:

Last October witnessed the export of about 23 million 812 thousand 198 barrels, compared to exports last September, which amounted to about 16 million 568 thousand 311 barrels, while the price of a barrel of Iraqi oil reached about 85.86 dollars. , compared to $93.23 during September.

The price of a barrel of Iraqi oil was recorded last August at about $81.66, but the volume of exports this month amounted to 25 million 842 thousand and 614 barrels, an increase of more than 9 million barrels over September, according to the specialized energy platform.

In July 2023, the quantities of Iraqi oil exported to Europe recorded approximately 20 million 505 thousand and 964 barrels, with an average price of approximately 78.53 dollars per barrel, meaning exports recorded approximately 1.61 billion dollars.

In June, Iraqi oil export revenues to Europe were about $1.07 billion, with the volume of exports reaching 15,734,19 barrels, while the average price of a barrel of Iraqi oil in that month was about $67.84.

The volume of Iraq's exports to Europe in May was 21 million, 402,379 barrels, with an average price per barrel of 66.03 US dollars, bringing revenues from Iraqi oil exports to Europe to about 1.41 billion dollars.

Iraq has been working to increase oil exports to the European market for about 12 months, with the aim of achieving great benefit from oil revenues to develop and maximize Baghdad’s financial resources, in addition to opening new markets and enhancing the spread of Iraqi oil in global markets.

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Provoking Points to Ponder From The Seat of the Soul By Gary Zukav:

You create your  reality with your intentions 

An intention is a quality of consciousness that you bring to an action

At each moment you choose the intentions that will shape your experiences and those things upon which you will focus your attention -- If you choose unconsciously, you evolve unconsciously -- If you choose consciously, you evolve consciously 

Every action, thought, and feeling is motivated by an intention -- and that intention is a cause that exists as one with an effect -- If  we participate in the cause - it is not possible for us not to participate in the effect -- In this most profound way - we are held responsible for our every action , thought, and feeling, which is to say, for our every intention

From the perception of the five sensory human, intentions have no effects, the effects of actions are physical, and not all actions affect us or others -- From the perception of the multi sensory human -- the intention behind an action determines its effects, every intention affects both us and others -- and the  effects of intentions extend far beyond the physical  world