Stability Of The Dollar Exchange Rate Between The Targeting Of The Central Bank And The Impact Of Regulatory And Random Variables

Dr. Haitham Hamid Mutlaq Al Mansour  With the fluctuation in the value of the dinar against the dollar since last week, it was noted that there are some predictions and signals from here and there that hint directly or indirectly that the dollar contract will disintegrate to a state in which it will move far away from the target level.

In fact, some have predicted that the dollar will escape from the control of the Central Bank. Here we had a pause with these predictions and signals.

It is self-evident in the logic of supply and demand that we sense a rise in the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar for reasons related to the tightening measures of the official supply, as the Central Bank targets the stability of the actual exchange rate and is trying to achieve a reduction in the gap between the nominal and real prices.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the dollar exchange rate has risen these days and for a week in particular. In this case, we say that the rise and fluctuation in the levels of the actual exchange rate cannot be judged based on it and concluded from it that the actual exchange rate may be exposed to a breakdown in the short term, because the fluctuation towards an increase during the week is not considered a fluctuation in the life of short-term changes, and also that the buffers of monetary policy are present and strong to maintain the stability of the exchange rate, because it uses monetary, financial and operational tools that aim to reduce the price level and keep inflation within an acceptable level.

And maintaining the level of foreign reserves within the desired growth rate and supporting the level of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar according to the fixed exchange rate system, which amounts to about 120 billion dollars, works to cover the source of currency.

The official exchange rate of the Central Bank is still maintaining its level and short-term rates, a path with an acceptable general trend within the controlled levels based on the effects of And external, organizational or random variables. It is also not possible to conclude that the dollar exchange rate will slip out of control in the short term, since the short-term price level did not rise beyond the 1515 range to the 1600 threshold or more, but rather returned to 1500 on Saturday evening.

In addition, the overall inflation index is controlled by the fiscal and monetary policy measures, as is known, through controlling the growth rate of foreign reserves and stabilizing the general price level resulting from reducing the internal supply of cash dollars in transactions, payments, contracts and commercial obligations since last year, criminalizing and regulating them.

The parallel exchange market has become of low impact outside the official exchange market, with a gap ranging around 10-18 for the total dollar demand and supply.

Therefore, it can be concluded that the clear stability witnessed by the dinar in its real levels is due to the stability of the exchange rate at this gap, in addition to the measures and policies of the Central Bank supporting the reduction of the gap between the two exchange rates for about a year, including the legal and monetary ones. Since the recent fluctuation was limited to the aforementioned 10-18 range, which means that the effectiveness of targeting is still within the acceptable level, since the parallel price system is considered subordinate to the targeted price system, since the first Based on the second in the mathematical and economic effects.

Therefore, it is too early to predict the dollar exchange rate will deteriorate in the presence of these political and procedural variables. 2024/07/14 https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=45216

Foreign Minister: US Treasury Positively Assessed Central Bank's Efforts

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Fuad Hussein confirmed that the US Treasury Department positively evaluated the efforts of the Central Bank.

Hussein said in a press conference held in the US capital Washington that "our visit to Washington was to attend the NATO summit at the invitation of the US side, and on the sidelines of the summit we held intensive meetings with leaders of several countries, and we held a meeting with the US Treasury Department to discuss issues related to monetary policy and banking signs."

He added that "the US Treasury Department positively evaluated the efforts of the Central Bank," indicating that "a military delegation will visit Washington to hold talks on the security agreement concluded between Iraq and the United States."  https://www.radionawa.com/all-detail.aspx?jimare=38852

Federation Of Iraqi Industries: The Government Has Focused All Its Attention On The Private Sector

Money  and business  Economy News – Baghdad  The Iraqi Industries Federation confirmed, on Sunday, that the government has focused all its attention on the private sector, which has provided significant support that has given it strength in the market and the ability to contribute to supporting government projects.

The head of the union, Adel Aqab, said in a statement reported by the official news agency, and reviewed by "Al-Eqtisad News", that "the union works in cooperation with the government, the private sector and the International Labor Organization and implements programs that benefit the private sector, which is clearly supported by the government," noting that "the government has focused its attention on this sector, which has given it clear strength in the market and a greater ability to support government projects."

Regarding the government's interest in infrastructure before paving operations, Aqab explained that "any paving operation without infrastructure is a waste of public money, as these stages are temporary and immediate, so paving operations must precede infrastructure projects, which is what the government is currently working on and is supported by the Federation of Industries and the private sector in providing the necessary materials for the work."

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Iraq Is The Fourth Largest Oil Exporter To America During The Week

Economy | 09:00 - 07/14/2024  Baghdad - Mawazine News  The US Energy Information Administration announced on Sunday that Iraq's oil exports to the United States increased last week.

The administration stated that "the average US imports of crude oil last week from 9 major countries amounted to 5.635 million barrels per day, up by 235 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, which amounted to 5.400 million barrels per day."

It added that "Iraq's oil exports to America amounted to 217 thousand barrels per day last week, up by 22 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, which amounted to 195 thousand barrels per day."

The administration indicated that "the largest oil revenues to America last week came from Canada at a rate of 3.889 million barrels per day, followed by Mexico at an average of 417 thousand barrels per day, followed by Saudi Arabia at 239 thousand barrels per day, and from Colombia at 226 thousand barrels per day, then Brazil at a rate of 217 thousand barrels per day."

According to the table, "the amount of US imports of crude oil from Nigeria was at a rate of 170 thousand barrels per day, from Ecuador 162 thousand barrels per day, then Libya at a rate of 44 thousand barrels per day."    https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=251283

More Than $250 Million In Foreign Transfers To The Central Bank Of Iraq At Today's Auction

Time: 2024/07/14 {Economic: Al Furat News} Sales of foreign remittances in the Central Bank auction, today, Sunday, increased by 92% over cash sales, reaching more than $255 million.

Today, the Central Bank sold during its auction for buying and selling the US dollar 275 million, 781 thousand, and 251 dollars, covering it at a basic exchange rate of 1310 dinars per dollar for documentary credits and international settlements for electronic cards, and at a rate of 1310 dinars per dollar for foreign transfers, and at a rate of 1305 dinars per dollar in cash.

Most of the dollar sales went to strengthen the balances abroad in the form of transfers and credits, which amounted to 255 million, 431 thousand, and 251 dollars, an increase of 92% over cash sales amounting to 20 million, 350 thousand dollars.

The number of banks that purchased cash dollars was two, while the number of banks that met requests to enhance balances abroad was 15 banks, and the total number of exchange and brokerage companies participating in the auction was 6 companies   LINK

Dollar Prices Close At 150 Thousand Dinars

Economy | 07/14/2024  Baghdad – Mawazine News  The dollar exchange rates closed on Sunday stable in the local markets of the capital, Baghdad.

Our correspondent said, "The dollar prices stabilized with the closing of the Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya stock exchanges, recording 150,250 Iraqi dinars for every 100 dollars, which are the same prices recorded yesterday, Saturday." He added, "The selling prices in exchange shops in the local markets in Baghdad stabilized, as the selling price reached 151,250 dinars, while the purchase price reached 149,250 dinars for every 100 dollars." https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=251303

Stock Exchange.. Sunday's Session Ends In Red

Market  Economy News – Baghdad  The stock market index declined on Sunday, ending the first day of this week in red.   The index fell by 0.35%.   The number of traded shares reached 8.4 billion shares, worth 3.4 billion dinars. During the session, 518 deals were executed on the shares of 30 companies.

The shares of six companies rose, while the shares of 10 others fell.

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