IQD CALLS Chat Tuesday Night 4-7-20
IQD CALLS Chat Tuesday Night 4-7-20
Futuremoney uh oh..the State Dept just emailed all American citizens a way to get airline tickets OUT of Iraq...price around 3,500.00 dollars
Baxter not good..
Baxter my dimes hopes are fading
futuremoney #Iraq: The U.S. Embassy has now e-mailed interested citizens with instructions on how to book tickets on a commercial flight leaving this week. If you have not yet contacted the U.S. Embassy about flight availability, please fill out the form in the link. http://ow.ly/IcC450z6HGq
Baxter maybe for the virus issues..
Wilder SHOCKING! Historian Exposes Bill Gates' Ties To NAZIs And More. https://banned.video/watch?id=5e8c9ef7475781009430c49d
sandyf @Kaperoni Tell that to the IMF they are the ones telling them to float the dinar and allow it to appreciate
That statement is completely false, at no time has the IMF ever told the Iraq to allow the IQD to appreciate.
Goes against your previous statement "All I do is post news from proven news and organization sources."
Bottom line is that it is nothing more than speculation to try and make out that a floating exchange rate would lead to appreciation.
The IMF told Egypt to float the Pound, nothing new in that, what happened to the currency?
Kaperoni sandyf Again, I have to educate the incompetent.
Kaperoni Direct from the IMF...
Kaperoni “14. The de facto fixed exchange rate has served Iraq well. The authorities agreed that a stable nominal exchange rate provides a valuable anchor for inflation expectations in an uncertain environment, and intend to continue implementing this policy for the foreseeable future.
In the medium term, staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy.
Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect, to accommodate a possible real exchange rate appreciation while keeping domestic inflation low.”
Kaperoni Two keys come from the above paragraph…
The IMF recommends that the CBI start.. “creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy" (float).
This would prepare them for a more “predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate.”
It would occur (triggered) by strong oil revenues and “Balassa-Samuelson effect” hypothesis.
So what is the Balassa-Samuelson effect hypothesis?
Kaperoni We already know the plan is to float dinar based on the IMF statement above (gradual appreciation).
When you search Wikipedia, you get an explanation for this as…”Balassa–Samuelson (BS) hypothesis implies that countries with rapidly expanding economies should tend to have more rapidly appreciating exchange rates.” In other words, the IMF themselves are acknowledging (by saying Balassa–Samuelson effect in this Article IV document) the dinar will rise rapidly.
Further research on Balassa-Samuelson effect brings us this…
“In 1964, academics Bela Balassa, a Hungarian economist, and Paul Samuelson, a Nobel-Laureate economist, independently observed that countries with higher levels of productivity growth experienced rapidly rising real wages and so appreciating real exchange rates.
Academic studies since have suggested the picture is not as simple as Mr Balassa and Mr Samuelson first thought and that many other factors can also influence the model.
However, many long term investors in emerging market currencies, for example, have been able to benefit from the appreciation of those currencies which is arguably due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect.”
Kaperoni The key here is the last sentence… “many long term investors in emerging market currencies, for example, have been able to benefit from the appreciation of those currencies which is arguably due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect.”
In other words, this reference to the “Balassa-Samuelson effect” hypothesis which in essence is described as “a rapidly expanding economy creates a rapidly appreciating exchange rate” will give us an opportunity to benefit from that appreciation. That can only mean free float. The word “rapid” only make sense in a free float.
Kaperoni Go back to the Strategic Framework Agreement/TIFA we learned above that it cannot go into force until Iraq (the CBI) has “freedom of movement” of capital. Which is clearly defined as acceptance of IMF Article VIII.
When we review the documents from Iraq and US, they both confirm the intention is to enter this agreement “into force” before the end of the year. In other words, the US Gov expect the Dinar to be internationally convertible before the end of 2013. Of course that is subject whether or not Iraq can achieve this goal.
Kaperoni http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13217.pdf
Chattels In Iraq, Hakim, leader of Hikma Movement, delivers President Bahram Salih the nomination of Mustafa Kathimi, director of National Intelligence Agency, as PM. http://mobp.as/thwLq
chattels Tariq Harb: Granting confidence can be attended by 165 deputies and more than half of them vote https://ninanews.com/Website/News/Details?key=822457
chattels The legal expert, Tariq Harb, said that granting confidence to the Prime Minister-designate could be attended by 165 deputies and their absolute majority could vote, more than half of them.
chattels "The quorum established constitutionally will be attended by at least 165 members, since they are more than half of the 329 members of parliament, but granting confidence is obtained by a majority of those present. If the attendance is 180 members, then granting confidence to the Prime Minister-designate Adnan Al-Zarfi will be With 91 deputies only, according to the fourth paragraph of Article 76 of the Constitution, which stipulated an absolute majority and not a majority of the members, they are 165 members.
chattels The quorum is achieved, as the vote and approval of 83 deputies in favor of Al-Zarfi is sufficient to give confidence. "
chattels The fewer in attendance, provided there is a quorum, reduces the number of votes needed to constitute a majority, so the notion of a boycott seems counterproductive to me.
chattels If the Shia factions want to defeat the vote as to Zurfi then they would do better to show up and not boycott which would require more votes to affirm him, or so it seems to me.
chattels The only benefit to a boycott would be if the boycott prevents a quorum.
chattels Adnan al-Zurfi's candidacy for PM got off to a rocky start. He has a potential majority, but also faces still opposition from the Iran-aligned factions. Fierce opposition, in fact. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk
chattels Opposition to Zurfi putatively solidified yesterday into a new coalition for intelligence director Mustafa al-Kathimi, but after 24 hours the putative anti-Zurfi coalition appears to be struggling. Zurfi's deadline is April 15 if I am counting the days correctly (so 8 days left). https://twitter.com/UticaRisk
chattels Some reports say that the 16th is the last day.
chattels Right now Zurfi seems to be holding firm, & here is Abadi's Nasr affirming that he has a majority and can form a govt. More importantly, Sadr & Hakim seem to be sticking with him. Without them he'd be doomed. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk
chattels One point in my Sada article might require some clarification, and that is my statement that Iraq could be "insolvent" w/n less than 12 months. This is not due to external debt, which for Iraq is bearable & can be stretched out. The threat is "internal default" on basic payments.
chattels In short: there is some operations spending that could be cut w/o enormous pain, but $6bn/month is my estimate for what Baghdad needs to avoid painful public sector cuts, non-payment of salaries, pensions, benefits, & shut-down of offices for lack of funds.
chattels Under existing projections, Baghdad might bring in $1bn/month from non-oil sources. So it needs $5bn/month from oil. In February, when Iraq sold oil at $51, it brought in just over $5bn. So Iraq selling oil at less than $50/barrel is FLASHING red light territory..
chattels Now, obviously, Iraq is selling oil at much less than $50. If it could not borrow from the Central Bank's hard currency reserves, which is technically illegal, as it did in 2015-16, Baghdad would go bust very soon. But it can.
chattels Now, the CBI has reportedly ~$87bn in total reserves, but Baghdad cannot borrow nearly all of that. The CBI has to hold much of it back to support the convertibility of the current & fund exports. But it could probably borrow $30-$40bn of it. After that it would go bust.
chattels Thus, under a worst-case scenario in which oil stays around $30 or below for the next year, Baghdad is going to be $2.5-$3bn short every month, & break the bank in something like 12 months, give or take. But even under a more optimistic - but realistic - scenario in which oil...
chattels ...gradually moves up and stabilizes back in the $50-60 range after a lengthy period, by the end of 2021 Baghdad could still have pushed the CBI to the brink. It would go years w/o CapX spending & be vulnerable to collapse if oil $ collapse again in 2020.
chattels If/when Baghdad starts cutting basic payments, whether this would spur a widespread, revolutionary uprising is impossible to predict. The point is just to say that the head of the next govt will have to act urgently. A fiscal crunch in the next 2 years is plausible.
chattels https://twitter.com/UticaRisk/status/1247634467499298816
chattels Political factions may block Iraq’s Al Zurfi from forming government, officials say https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/political-factions-may-block-iraq-s-al-zurfi-from-forming-government-officials-say-1.1003076
chattels Getting to a parliamentary session will be the key, if there is quorum and a vote does happen then he probably can get the number required, Mr Jiyad said.
Kaperoni xyz you are a liar. And I have nothing to do with your participation in website purchases you may have made. You need to stop blaming me and take it up with the site owner if you have a problem but then again you say it's been years so I doubt you'll have any recourse. Get over it
chattels MP said Iraqi parties will continue to pick new nominee who will be rejected until next elections held
chattels In this interview just before his designation last month, Zurfi framed himself as a fiscal hawk on this issue, noting the internal default threat. But like AAM, he'll have no majority in parl't & will struggle to get this political class to reform. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk
Chattels I've been writing about this option since January. "Replace Abd al-Mahdi with Abd al-Mahdi." There is substantial support for that among not only some Shia parties, but also among the Kurds. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk
xyz "The Fed Can Lend To Anybody": Watch Live As Bernanke Holds Virtual Discussion On US Economy
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-can-lend-anybody-watch-live-bernanke-holds-virtual-discussion-us-economy
None other than the man who saved the world, and "contained" subprime, is holding a Q&A live (over Zoom)...
In his prepared remarks, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke suggested US GDP could shrink 30%-plus annualized in Q2 (while playing down any comparisons between the lockdowns and The Great Depression, although he does believe we may see an emerging market crisis and global recession;
He believes that much of the recent explosion in the Fed balance sheet is temporary, that there will be more fiscal help coming, and said that "The Fed can essentially lend to anybody" based on its emergency powers.
Finally, Bernanke admitted that he is not expecting a sharp "v-shaped" recovery in the economy.
xyz Really!!
Donald Trump is now actively involved in the reinstatement or monetary reform of the Iraqi dinar https://dinarrecaps.com/our-blog/frank26-video-tuesday-night-super-supervising-4-7-2020
Xyz Scientists Discover A 2Billion Years Old Nuclear Reactor In Gabon Africa
https://libertywritersglobal.com/scientists-discover-a-2billion-years-old-nuclear-reactor-in-gabon-africa/
Over the last two centuries, scientists and archaeologists have opened the eyes of the world to the many ancient technologies hidden in plain sight in Africa. The discovery of modern tools, machines, and techniques, have enabled archaeologists and scientists to better understand the role Africa played in the evolution of the earth and mankind.
Although many things are still not clear, one fact that keeps resurfacing is that humans have been on this planet for longer than we can tell and that Africa (the Black man), was at the forefront of the civilizations and technologies that power the planet from time immemorial.
A nuclear reactor, lost to history, was discovered by a worker at a nuclear fuel processing plant, in Africa, in 1972. The worker noticed that there was something suspicious in one of the analyses of the uranium obtained from the mineral source at the site.
Chattels "the Iraqi forces need to be armed and equipped, but this does not mean that they still need training," explaining that "handing over bases and headquarters is proceeding according to a planned schedule between the Iraqi government and the international coalition." https://www.rudaw.net/arabic/middleeast/iraq/0704202018
https://covid.joinzoe.com/us COVID Symptom Tracker
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Stats